Summer League Rookie Notes

As a follow up to my draft notes post available for Premium Members, I'm going to go through my thoughts and takeaways from the Summer League as they pertain to dynasty. As with the previous post, not every player will be featured and many blurbs will be brief.

Collin Murray-Boyles

I had CMB at 5 pre-draft, he's back at 5 now. I overthought the landing spot and I guess I just needed to see him play to remind me of how good of a prospect he is. I'm constantly reminding myself to trust the data and the metrics I have, and there's no better case than Murray-Boyles. He's a beast, plain and simple. The fit isn't great but the Raptors aren't good enough to keep him off the floor. I will keep the faith.

Khaman Maluach

In keeping with the Murray-Boyles move up, I brought fellow metic-darling Khaman Maluach a couple spots up with him. The three point volume is encouraging, he's far away, but there's something there.

Egor Demin

I moved Demin down a couple spots, partly due to CMB and Maluach and partly due to the role he played in Summer League. Maybe an overreaction, and maybe it was a Summer League-only experiment, but it seems like the Nets are leaning toward using Demin as a connecting wing rather than a primary. This is probably his best path to real-life success, but for fantasy purposes, I really want him on the ball as much as possible. The three point volume and on the move attempts were really encouraging, but as the best passer in the class, I hoped the team to lean into that and give him on ball reps to showcase the passing and work on his handling pressure. He also didn't show ANYTHING inside the arc, something that was a huge concern pre-draft. I moved him from 5 to 7, which ended up being around a ten spot movement in overall dynasty value within the same tier. So while it's nothing major, I will be monitoring it going forward.

Derik Queen

Another victim of the Murray-Boyles/Maluach rise. I dropped Queen two spots, and while there aren't any major negatives, the minor negatives are stacking up and potentially aggregating into a major one. It's not a great look to show up out of shape and not give great effort on defense after having those narratives plague your pre-draft process. I tend not to believe in some of the organizational narratives, but I can't say him being in New Orleans gives me confidence on the body/effort fronts. Factor in the lost time from this 3 month injury recovery and Queen seems to be starting off on the wrong foot.

Jeremiah Fears

No real Summer League takeaway besides that he is exactly who we thought he was. It's going to take some time with Fears, and in dynasty it's harder than ever to be patient. Am I confident that Jeremiah Fears is a better prospect than Ace Bailey? Yes. Am I also confident that for the next two years Ace Bailey is going to carry a significant amount more dynasty value than Fears? Also yes. That makes this rank hard. I currently have Bailey and Tre Johnson below Fears but I go back and forth every day. Balancing long-term production with the potential of significant short-term value spikes is the hardest part of rookie rankings. It's the same problem I've been going through with Sheppard/Dillingham v. Castle/Carrington in the previous cycle. No real takeaway for the readers, but I guess I just felt the need to type out my frustrations and give y'all something to think about as you digest my rankings, other content, and your own dynasty decisions.

Kasparas Jakucionis

Just wanted to say I don't care at all that he couldn't make a shot for most of the Summer League. To be fair he also couldn't make a shot for the second half of the year at Illinois either, but there was a forearm injury to consider so I'm going to reserve judgment until later. The inability to get to the rim due to lack of athleticism is concerning but he hasn't moved in my rankings. Summer League doesn't matter after all!

Hansen Yang

The star of the Summer League. Happy to have been into Yang and his star potential before he suited up, but as it often goes with dynasty community, we're overreacting. From the day of the draft until now, Yang has ranked 16th in my rookie rankings, moving up a tier from the top of one to the bottom of another, although that was partially due to concerns over former tier-mate Carter Bryant. The three point volume is huge for his development and everything looks great on that front, but man, from what I'm seeing there isn't a non-outlier path to him being an average defender OR rebounder for his position and that's not a traditionally successful archetype at center. Like Jokic and Sengun before him, Yang has uber quick hands that'll allow him to make up for some of the foot speed deficiencies, but he's also so far behind the other two in most other ways. Watching him fight for rebounds vs Derik Queen and Yves Missi (a poor frontcourt by NBA regular season standards) was almost sad. Immensely talented player but the path to hit his upside (1) is a ways away and (2) requires a lot of environmental factors to fall in his favor. After the draft I thought I'd end up being overweight on Yang, and now it looks like I won't have any shares at all.

Carter Bryant

Carter Bryant was simultaneously the most impressive defensive player and least impressive offensive player from the Summer League among top prospects. I understand that at his ceiling, Bryant can be one of the most dominant three and D guys in the NBA, but as of right now his offense is in the basement, and this is a 5 story mansion with long, winding staircases.

Walter Clayton Jr.

I moved Clayton Jr. up a tier, not because of anything he did. Since the draft the Jazz traded Colin Sexton and cut Jordan Clarkson, opening up ample playing time for Walt in his rookie year. Maybe I should've seen this coming, but barring injury he's going to hit my coveted 1,000 minutes mark, meaning I had to give him a bump.

Nique Clifford

He looked great but I just want everyone to relax. We do this almost every year with the productive super-seniors and it almost always starts just like this. He's better than Dalton Knecht, Tristan Da Silva, Chris Duarte, Jaime Jaquez, Trayce Jackson-Davis and the like, but he's supposed to be dominating these games. He's in the Terrence Shannon Jr. bucket for me right now. They're the best of the best in their age bracket, but I think they max out as maybe a good 5th starter on a playoff team.

Joan Beringer

Beringer moved up from the top of one tier to the bottom of another without changing his overall rank. He graded out pretty well in my models, I've been low on him compared to consensus because I just didn't see a path to early playing time. I still don't but he might force the Wolves hand if the flashes he's shown are real. I have absolutely no issue with anyone who wants to take Beringer well above where I have him ranked.

Liam McNeeley/Hugo Gonzalez

I grouped these two together because my 10,000 feet thoughts on them are the same right now: bad pre-draft statistical profiles, impressed in the summer league, context could play a huge role. You can come up with pretty compelling narratives to explain away a lot of the pre-draft issues with both McNeeley and Gonzalez.

McNeeley: 5 star recruit, forced into an on ball role and Connecticut that he wasn't ready for (but hopefully was great for his long-term development), and then hurt his ankle that tanked his jumpshot. Lots of growth needed but plenty of opportunity to prove himself in Charlotte. Consider me Liam McNeeley-curious.

Gonzalez: was going toe-to-toe with Demin, Jakucionus, and Traore at the u18 level but instead of going to college or a middling team in the French league, he stayed at his Euro powerhouse and struggled to get playing time, causing a slide down the draft board. I didn't think his profile was to the level of Demin, Jakucionis, or Traore at the u18 level, but he was still in the conversation. Now, Gonzalez is in Boston with opportunity to prove himself on a roster in limbo and I'm warming to the idea of him being more than he showed at Barcelona.