2025 NBA Draft Notes (Premium Members Only)

We are over 24 hours since the conclusion of the draft, and now that I've had time to collect my thoughts and get out an initial set of rankings, I thought I'd share the reasoning behind some of the rankings and just share how I'm feeling about the class. This is going to be rapid fire, not every player will be talked about, and I'm just going to try to outline the basics of my reasoning.

Preemptive warning: this article is going to contain a LOT of my own tweets

Philosophy

Before I dive into specific players I think it's important to share how I'm viewing dynasty rookie drafts and how those views may have changed over time. That leads me to the two most important pieces of advice I have for ranking players in rookie drafts:

1. Upside > Everything

   
   

   This has always been my greatest guiding principle in rookie drafts and dynasty as a whole. We're wrong much more than we're right, so we might as well try and maximize the payoff when we get things right. This means shooting for the stars, literally. I try to prioritize players with star outcomes that can change the trajectory of a dynasty team. Hitting singles is nice, and necessary to be successful, but I want to score as many runs and possible and that often means selling out for the home run.

2. Prioritize Year 1

   
   

   Unlike pillar number 1, this is a newer rule for me. Previously I was on team "talent over everything, talent always wins out no matter what." And while that's true, it's only true in the long-run, and dynasty, despite what people tell you, is not about the long-run. We are impatient beings, so much can change so quickly: leagues can fold, teams can fall off, players can tear their achilles (apparently a lot of them can). But with so much uncertainty, and the fact that this game is played in market-like conditions where you can buy and sell assets based on price, maximizing that price as early as possible is something that's of the utmost importance. Now, I want you to reread what I just wrote, prioritizing year one is about prioritizing value gains in year one, NOT production. Outside of the Flaggs and the Wembanyamas of the world, I do not expect real year one contributions from rookies. I do, however, want a rookie's value to rise, or at minimum hold steady, as they go through the most difficult learning curve of their career. This means that in some spots I'll be pushing up worse players in better situations over players I actually like. It's uncomfortable, but with the way dynasty players as a whole treat rookies, it's necessary.

Egor Demin

My biggest riser from pre-draft to now. Demin is an uber flawed player with an interesting skillset and the best combination of landing spot and draft capital in the class. Best passer in draft + three point volume + Nets + stocks = something I'm interested in. The Nets also don't have a plethora of 2026 draft capital, meaning I don't think it's likely that he gets drafted over until the 2027 draft, which is supposed to be one of the weakest in recent memory. We're getting a long runway for a player with really interesting tools and broad market appeal. There's a good chance Demin is a sell high a year from now but if we even get to that point we've already won.

Collin Murray-Boyles

I love Collin Murray-Boyles, all the analytics models love Collin Murray-Boyles, I'm worried whoever takes over the Raptors front office might not love Collin Murray-Boyles. In all honesty, that's a tertiary concern compared to (1) all the front court depth Toronto has and (2) the lack of shooting that Toronto has that would likely be needed to maximize his skillset. This landing spot made me sad.

Derik Queen

My thoughts on Queen can really be summed up in two (of my own) tweets

A super talented and unique player that needs to have an infrastructure built around him to hit a true ceiling outcome. I don't think the Pelicans have that infrastructure but with how much they paid to trade up to get him, they're going to give him every chance to fail.

Jeremiah Fears

Hardest player for me to rank. All my modeling really likes him but I just can't fully get on board. Short, can't shoot, can't defend, can't make layups. It's a really tough profile. Probably the highest variance player in the draft, likely to be really bad year one, but upside > everything...

Khaman Maluach

Boring but I'm confident of production. The Mark Williams trade is weird but Phoenix has so few assets that them using their best one on Maluach gives me confidence that they have a plan (even though nothing the Suns have done since Ishbia took over should give me faith in any sort of competent plan).

Ace Bailey

Ace Bailey will contribute in numerous categories and be a really solid asset but the upside is overstated. Him hitting an all-star (not even a real superstar) outcome would require maybe the greatest outlier passing development of all time. He also has some serious work to do in the weight room to help him get to the rim and stop settling for all those contested mid range shots (and that's only IF it's a strength problem and not a mentality issue). It also doesn't help that all my modeling HATES him.

The Utah landing spot is great in the sense that he's the best prospect on the team and should be prioritized, but he needs good guard play and they have one passer on the entire roster while the rest are shoot first, and shoot second players.

Cedric Coward

It's to a lesser degree than Queen, but I certainly noticed the Grizzlies package to trade up for Coward. As I so eloquently stated in the below tweet, Coward's upside case is still very much on the table, where I think some of the players around him have shown enough to make me very skeptical. He's a mystery box, but a mystery box where the only things you know are (1) that he can shoot, (2) he's historically long, and (3) one of the best front offices in the league traded up to get him is a mystery box worth opening.

Noa Essengue

Essengue is a rare breed: an analytics darling that I'm hesitant to buy in on. He's a fluid athlete but not explosive. I'm not sure what tangible skills he really possesses outside of foul drawing (and who knows how that will translate to the NBA). The landing spot is great, though. The Bulls want to run and Essengue is a monster in transition. Playing with Giddey will be great for him. The fit with Matas is pretty weird and overlapping, but we'll see.

Kasparas Jakucionis

Jakucionis really needed a team to believe in him enough to take him early, That didn't happen but he's joining the #HeatCulture who are also really in need of guard play. Not sure what to make of him right now but I'm not as out as I would be if you told me he went to some random other non-lottery team.

Thomas Sorber

You know how earlier I mentioned that there will be players I like getting ranked below players I don't like? Well, Sorber is a player I like getting dropped in my rankings. His avenues to gaining value are just too limited to me. First off, he's starting behind the eight ball: he's hurt and won't be playing in Summer League, which means he can't get (1) the developmental reps he needs, or (2) any market value boost from playing well in the summer league. He also won't be playing much this year, even if he was fully healthy. A lot of people are just penciling in that he'll take over a rotation spot after the Thunder decline Hartenstein's team option next summer but that's not something I'm comfortable in banking on. If the Thunder are in the midst of trying to threepeat, who's to say they don't dip into the second apron and bring back one of their most critical players? The Thunder also have a boatload. of picks that could potentially be used to draft over Sorber or be used in a package to get an established player that takes his spot. This is all in addition to the fact that he'll never have his development prioritized in OKC, and he wasn't this mega polished player at Georgetown in the first place (his splits against top competition are pretty frightening). He's a really good prospect, and I love that he has the Presti stamp of approval, but I'm probably out at cost.

Hansen Yang

I've sent my rankings to a couple of fellow dynasty content creators and my membership into the Yang Gang was their biggest surprise. There's so much going right for Yang

• Draft capital

• Great fantasy statset

• His front office essentially put their jobs on the line for him

I'm also not worried about any potential fit with Clingan. Two big lineups are back and the Blazers seem motivated to make it work. Both players have at least tried to stretch the floor and Yang's playmaking might open up possibilities for the pair to share the court. Clingan has also not shown the ability, in college or the NBA, to be a high minute player and has a decent injury history. Yang's going to get a chance to play, you just have to trust that his skills will translate. I'm willing to take that bet.

Carter Bryant

Young, athletic wings are what people traditionally consider high upside. To me, Carter Bryant is the opposite. I don't necessarily buy the shooting, there's no passing, or any self-creation. He's going to be a really solid, and maybe even really good, NBA player but it's not the type of investment I like to make. Additionally, there's no usage to go around on the Spurs, he's pigeonholed to a low usage, 3 and D role.

Danny Wolf

The anti Khaman Maluach. Older and doesn't do really any of the traditional big man things well. But there's upside there and the Nets are the team in the best position to explore it.

Rasheer Fleming

I've debated people on Fleming all cycle. I think the shooting is fake and due to regress, which would really kill his value, but the rest of the skills are there and going to Phoenix at 31 should give him the opportunity to earn minutes similarly to his peers drafted well before him.

Ryan Kalkbrenner

A great bet for a year one value gain. He's the best center in Charlotte, very underrated as a prospect, and shouldn't be too expensive.

Adou Thiero

At worst he's a hustle player that JJ Redick is going to LOVE in his rotation, but the Jimmy Butler comparisons have been floating around for a reason. The shooting is the huge question. I'm optimistic because the high school numbers pre-growth spurt were promising and the touch on the floater is good. It's not likely, but it's possible and that's all I really need at this point in the draft.

Noah Penda

An unusually good playmaker for a wing with his defensive abilities. Orlando's bench is bad, he should have an opportunity to earn minutes year one.

Johni Broome

Usually when a player becomes a meme online, they also become a buy in dynasty (there IS a Cody Williams exception to this rule). Broome had a 27 inch vertical but that didn't stop him from blocking shots, grabbing rebounds, and being the most dominant player in college basketball this year. Highest rated 2nd round pick ever by one of my models and I don't think the landing spot is bad. A great target.

Kam Jones

One of the best self-creators in recent history going to a team whose point guard just tore his achilles. Count me in.

Bogoljub Markovic

The odds of a stash player becoming anything is super low, but the profile is interesting, he was really productive for his age, and the Bucks are going to need bodies. (And Jokic was stashed on the same team as Markovic!!)

Amari Williams/Max Shulga

Incredibly productive and joining a wide open Boston roster. Two great dart throws, specifically Williams.

That's all I've got right now, I might add some my thoughts on a couple more players later but if you have any specific questions reach out to me in the Discord or on Twitter.