2024 Rookie Grades and Range of Outcomes

Jason Bourne
Jun 8
2 min read

The intersection of my prospect model and rookie model creates a range of outcomes that you could reasonably expect first year players to fall within long-term. The idea is to see how players who were ranked similarly as prospects and played similarly as rookies fared in their NBA careers. Outside of the two models, players are also grouped by position and usage to get a slightly tighter band of outcomes.

I wouldn't take too much from one singular player showing up as a potential outcomes, but rather use the group as a sort of probability game. It also goes without saying that these are not playstyle comparisons but rather potential impact or production comparisons.

Zaccharie Risacher

Alex Sarr

Reed Sheppard

*No guard that graded as well as Reed Sheppard did as a prospect has ever gotten a C Rookie Grade. In fact, the only players with his grade that have every not gotten an A grade are Andrew Bogut, Zach Collins, and Aleksej Pokusevski. Not great.

Stephon Castle

Ron Holland

Tidjane Salaun

Donovan Clingan

Rob Dillingham

Zach Edey

Cody Williams

Matas Buzelis

Devin Carter

Bub Carrington

Kel'el Ware

Jared McCain**

**If he never got hurt his range of outcomes would look like this:

Dalton Knecht

Tristan Da Silva

Ja'Kobe Walter

Jaylon Tyson

Yves Missi

AJ Johnson

Kyshawn George

Pacome Dadiet

Dillon Jones

Dillon Jones is the only player in his prospect (Upside) to receive an F rookie grade.

Terrence Shannon Jr.

Ryan Dunn

Isaiah Collier

Baylor Scheierman

Notable 2nd Round Grades

Jonathan Mogbo: C

Kyle Filipowski: B

Ajay Mitchell: D

Jaylen Wells: C

Adem Bona: B

Jamal Shead: C

Quinten Post: D

Quick Takeaways

All in on Jared McCain
I'd buy in on Tidjane Salaun as a throw-in, I would not touch Cody Williams with a 10 foot pole
Castle's outcomes are weird because the usage he got this year down the stretch won't be nearly indicative of his opportunity going forward
The time to sell the bad prospects who got minutes on bad teams (Collier, Bub, AJ Johnson) is now
Not good for Devin Carter
The Edey outcomes weren't as fun as I hoped they'd be. Mostly down to usage, thanks Taylor Jenkins
Adem Bona