Exploring Potential Dynasty Sells Using Breakout Age

One of the first projects I completed relating to dynasty basketball was analyzing at what ages do players breakout. The goal was to answer the simple question "How old is too old to breakout?"

For this project, a "breakout" was considered a player's first ever top 50 season-long 9 category finish. The sample was made up of all first round picks from the 2003 through 2022 draft classes that have had a breakout season (second round picks were omitted because their opportunities and timelines are generally delayed compared to first round picks). I next looked at by what age each player had their breakout season. The results are below:

19 years old- 2.2%

20 years old- 10.1%

21 years old- 23.9%

22 years old- 40.0%

23 years old- 62.3%

24 years old- 78.3%

25 years old- 89.1%

26 years old- 96.4%

27 years old- 97.8%

28 years old- 99.3%

29 years old- 100%

The general takeaway is that 96.% of all players that had a top 50 9cat finish, did so by their age 26 season. After that, curve flattens off significantly.

This leads me to the actionable portion of this post. The following are players that have considerable value/are viewed as having untapped upside that are approaching the top of this age curve without a top 50 finish:

Next Year is Age 26 Season

• Jordan Poole

  • Industry Rank: 47

• Immanuel Quickley

  • Industry Rank: 58

• Anfernee Simons

  • Industry Rank: 91

    
    

Next Year is Age 27 Season

• Malik Monk

  • Industry Rank: 79

• PJ Washington

  • Industry Rank: 125

• Collin Sexton

  • Industry Rank: 128

    
    

Next Year is Age 28 Season

• Payton Pritchard

  • Industry Rank: 134

• Ty Jerome

  • Industry Rank: 195

    
    

This isn't to say that these players won't maintain their current level of play, or even dynasty value, but it might suggest that their current level of play is who they are as players/assets and there isn't much room for growth. It could also be worthwhile to look at players that haven't reached this age peak yet but are close to it and decide if the inherent risk is worth the upside. Players like Devin Vassell and Onyeka Okongwu have been lauded for their potential but are approaching their age 25 seasons without ever putting it all together for a full season. These are the types of players where it might be worthwhile to consider getting out before consensus catches up.

It's very worthwhile to note that in the three seasons since I collected this data, there have been four former first round picks to achieve their first top 50 season after the age of 26: Jakob Poeltl, Cameron Thomas, Derrick White, and Josh Hart. Does this mean the data is meaningless? Is there some new trend in the NBA that's leading to an increase in later breakouts? I don't know. What I do know is that it's generally a bad idea to bet on players becoming outliers, so I'll still be putting the potential sells mentioned earlier under a closer microscope than before.

Regardless of the specific players mentioned in this piece, I think the underlying data and message illustrate an even more important takeaway: if players are going to become elite, they typically show you early on. We often like to preach patience and give out excuses for player underperformance, but when it really comes down to it, most players that become the fantasy superstars that we desire become those superstars at a relatively young age. Players show you who they are during their rookie contract, and waiting around any longer than that for players to change their trajectory is likely just lowering your team's value and chances of winning your league.